职业体育市场中政策变动对赛事消费需求的影响：基于中国足球协会超级联赛的实证研究

职业体育市场中政策变动对赛事消费需求的影响：基于中国足球协会超级联赛的实证研究

The Impact of Policy-induced Fluctuations on Consumer Demand in the Professional Sports

Market—An Empirical Study Based on the Chinese Football Association Super League　　

　　作者：王啸，香港中文大学新闻与传播学院

　　全文下载：kx1810王啸.pdf

　　摘要：从职业体育市场中的买方视角出发，在中国足球协会超级联赛(以下简称“中超联赛”)U23新政与外援新政的政策背景下，以2016、2017两个赛季中超联赛所有480场比赛的统计数据为样本，通过实证模型的建构与检验，尝试走出过往体育经济学视域下职业体育市场消费需求研究的地域及视角局限，探讨“足协新政”与球迷消费需求之间的联动关系，以此为中国足球改革的中长期规划提供更为丰富的参考。研究结果显示：1)在控制相关变量后，U23本土球员出场人数与比赛上座率呈负向显著，中国足协与各俱乐部亟须在锻炼新人、落实政策与刺激消费三者之间取得平衡；2)国际外援登场人数对观众人数并无显著影响，引援新政并不构成对中超联赛吸引力与观赏性的剧烈冲击，有效处理因外援资源闲置、财务统计滞后、转会操作的国际接轨程度低而导致的沉重财务负担，应成为各俱乐部引援工作的重心；3)大牌外援与世界级名帅对观众消费意愿亦无实质影响，但身价效应呈正向显著，各俱乐部应通过综合平衡引援预算、增加外援与球队的融合度、引入强有力内援以及合理衔接内外援职责等手段，提高资金使用效益，提升球队整体战斗力，进而吸引观众入场看球。

　　关键字：体育经济学；消费需求；职业体育；中国足球协会超级联赛；政策

　　Abstract：Against the backdrop of latest Chinese Super League (CSL) U23 domestic player and foreign player rules, this paper takes the perspective of consumers acting in the professional sports market and investigates the correlation between policy changes and audience’s consumption sentiments by utilizing micro-data archived for all 480 matches in 2016 and 2017 season in CSL. Through the construction and inspection of the empirical model, this study aims to go beyond the geographic and explanatory limit of previous professional sports demanding contributions in the field of sports economics and to render a wider range of references for the medium- and long-term development plan of the Chinese football reform. After controlling for defined variables, results show that 1) The number of U23 local youth players negatively predicts game attendance, demonstrating an urgent call for striking a balance between fostering up-and-coming talents, implementing new rules, and stimulating consumption. 2) The total number of foreign players on the pitch shows no significant effect on game attendance, suggesting that the foreign player limit introduces no dramatic impact on the attraction and appreciation of CSL games. Clubs should focus on effectively dealing with the heavy financial burden engendered by the substantial idleness of foreign players, the lag of financial statistics, and the low-degree international integration of transfer dealings. 3) Marquee foreign players and managers show no essential influence on the audience’s consuming willingness, but the overall transfer value has a significant positive impact on game attendance. By means of balancing the transfer budget, increasing the mutual understanding between foreign and other players, and importing competitive local players, all clubs should raise the efficiency of fund utilization and enhance the team’s overall strength, thereby attracting more fans to enter the stadium.

　　Keyword：sports economics; consumer demand; professional sports; Chinese Football Association Super League; policy